Oh baby, are we peaking?

Hey Boomers, remember that special feeling: over the top confidence, dilated pupils, fast heart rate, feeling connected, feeling energetic, feeling happy? Many of us felt it only at extraordinary events like Mardi Gras. For others it was most weekends. And for some, it was a fast way to kick start a slow day. That was in the 1980s, 1990s and early this century. For the hardier Boomers amongst us, it was far more recently.

This blog is about a different kind of peaking in our new Covid-19 century.

Delta is peaking.

The big news in Australia and overseas is that our knowledge about the Delta variant of Covid-19 is rapidly increasing and with it our ability to defeat it. There are new drugs showing great promise in reducing illness and death while the vaccines are continuing to be effective against Delta. There is also a drug in the pipeline which provides protection for people who cannot be vaccinated because of compromised immune systems.

While Delta is clearly more infectious, the science tells us that it not more deadly, particularly in populations with high vaccination rates. While some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous variants in unvaccinated people, the vast majority of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19 are in unvaccinated people. While young people are being infected at higher rates, this is not translating into higher deaths although there is a reasonable level of anxiety about the immediate and long-term impact of Covid-19 on children. Also, Covid-19 is continuing to evolve into a disease of the unvaccinated and a disease of the young (given that many older people are vaccinated and protected from the virus), which means there is real fear that emerging variants will pose more serious health risks to children.

In Australia, Boomers and those aged over 50, continue to carry the heaviest burden of Covid-19, accounting for 97 per cent of deaths. As of 6 October, 1,357 people had lost their lives to Covid-19, of which 18 were below the age of 39 and a further 22 below the age of 49. While these deaths translate into immense grief for the families and friends impacted, they are statistically minor, compared to the number of people dying of other health related diseases. According to Infectious diseases expert Peter Collignon: “If you ‘re 80 and you get Covid you’ve probably got more than a one in 10 chance of dying, compared to a 30-year-old where it’s probably one in 10,000.”

Panic levels may also be peaking.

While many are nervous about what will happen once restrictions are lifted and international borders are opened, the news is still promising. While the number of infections is likely to rapidly increase (brace yourself for a white-knuckle ride), there is little evidence globally that there will be a significant increase in the number of deaths.

There is a concern that States and Territories with low vaccination rates and low infection rates could become perfect hosts for Delta, as they have no background immunity through exposure to Covid-19. These jurisdictions have successfully kept the virus at bay, but this success may translate into a health crisis delayed rather than averted. Therefore, Queensland and Western Australia will not be pushed to open up any earlier than they absolutely need to.

There is no compelling argument that all of Australia should open at the same time. Nor is there a compelling argument that States and Territories at the front of the race to open should wait for the others to catch up, before doing so.

The vaccination rate is peaking.

With 86 per cent of the total population eligible for a Covid-19 vaccine, Australians are on track to being one of the most vaccinated groups of people in the world. The remaining 16 per cent of the total population is those aged under 12 years of age. This age group is not yet eligible to be vaccinated.

Australia is likely to achieve a vaccination rate of between 75 and 80 per cent of the total population, assuming that no more than 10 per cent of this group will be unable or unwilling to get the jab. This compares to 80 per cent in Singapore, 77 per cent in Canada, 72 per cent in the UK and 64 per cent in the US. Interestingly, these countries have peaked with new vaccinations reduced to a trickle whereas Australia is still doing around 2 million jabs a week. As an aside New Zealand is doing remarkably well at 69 per cent and rising rapidly.

Alas, political incompetence is not peaking.

Unfortunately, political incompetence is not peaking but surging.

These positive numbers mask a stark reality, which is that those groups most vulnerable to Covid-19 and who were reliant on the Federal Governments for timely access to vaccinations have remained unprotected. These groups include Indigenous Australians and people with severe disabilities. Obscenely, the PM said today that we were on the ‘home stretch out of the pandemic.’ That is clearly true for those not left to the Feds to protect.

First Nations Australians were supposed to be a high priority in the vaccination rollout, but first dose vaccination rates are currently much lower than the national average. Based on data as of 26 September, 51 per cent of Indigenous Australians aged 12 and over have had one vaccination dose Australia-wide, while only 32 per cent have had both doses. For people with a disability in group home settings, 68 per cent are fully vaccinated, and 76 per cent have gotten one jab. As the Guardian highlights, this means nearly a quarter remain unprotected.

For a more detailed discussion on how the Feds continue to stuff up the vaccination rollout, see an earlier blog: Political opportunism gone wrong. Another view on why Australia’s vaccine rollout has been such a mess.

Lockdowns have peaked.

Oh, joy of joys I here you squeal! As I have written elsewhere, the idea that Covid-19 could be brought to heel through ongoing lockdowns and social control is poor politics dressed up as public health policy. Yes, social distancing, good hygiene and the wearing of masks in at-risk-settings will be with us for some time and that is a good thing. But, sending in the police to bust up a family gathering or to fine people for sitting on a beach, is not. This chapter in our Covid-19 response, is rapidly coming to an end. The same can be said for ‘go early, go hard,’ which people have been banging on about since the get go. These approaches worked in certain contexts but as can be seen from the situation in Victoria, and to a lesser extent in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and across the pond in New Zealand, they have reached their ‘use-by date.’

Gladys has peaked.

The political career of the then NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has certainly peaked. She resigned last Friday giving the political equivalent of the ‘finger’ to all concerned after the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), revealed it was investigating her over a secret relationship and dubious dealings with a former lawmaker, 'Dodgy' Daryl Maguire.

The new NSW Premier has already peaked, hopefully.

After successfully climbing the greasy political pole, we can only hope it is all downhill from here for Dominic Francis Perrottet, MP, the newly appointed 46th Premier of NSW and out and proud conservative cultural warrior.

An avid Trump supporter and climate sceptic, he is on the public record opposing legal efforts to compel priests to disclose child abuse, same sex marriage, and the decriminalisation of abortion. It is reassuring that he lost all three battles. The new premier is expected to actively oppose the proposed voluntary assisted dying law, which will be debated in November. He will no doubt back an anti-trans bill and another bill to prevent religious discrimination by institutionalising other forms of discrimination. Hopefully, he will lose these battles as well, as communities escalate their opposition to these retrograde measures.

Happy peaking Boomers! Here is my tune for the week: Paul Capsis singing Summertime, on Shazam or Spotify. Enjoy!